Prediction Markets

Trade the outcome of a future event. Each market asks one question — Will BTC be above $100,000 at 08:00 UTC on September 30? — and you take a position on YES, NO, or one of several listed outcomes.

Price represents probability

YES price	Implied probability
$0.20	~20%
$0.50	~50%
$0.80	~80%

Prices move continuously as traders update their views. In a binary market, YES price + NO price ≈ $1.00 — small gaps come from the spread and available liquidity.

Buy YES when you think the event is more likely than the YES price implies; buy NO when you think it is less likely.

How payouts work

Shares settle after the market resolves: 1 winning share = $1.00, 1 losing share = $0.

Buy 100 YES at $0.60 → cost 100 × $0.60 = $60.

YES wins: 100 × $1.00 = $100, profit $40.
YES loses: $0, loss $60.

Fees are excluded from the example.

You can exit before resolution

You do not have to hold to resolution. If there is liquidity, sell at any time: buy YES at $0.40, sell at $0.70, realize the difference. Execution depends on liquidity and the fill price you get.

Versus perpetuals

	Perps	Predictions
You trade	the price of an asset	the outcome of an event
Direction	long or short	YES or NO
Leverage	up to 60x	none — always 1x
Expiry	none; hold while margin holds	settles when the event resolves
Price means	market price of the underlying	implied probability (63¢ ≈ 63%)
Payoff	scales with the move and your leverage	$1 if right, $0 if not
Max loss	liquidation risk with leverage	capped at what you paid
Fees	VIP tier rates	market-specific
Funding	paid or received while open	none

Events provider

Prediction markets on TxFlow are provided by Probly; TxFlow provides the trading interface. See the Probly documentation for provider-side detail.

In this section

Page	Covers
Market Types	Binary and category markets, crypto up/down markets
Trading	Choosing a side, order types, the book, position value, fees
Resolution & Settlement	Resolution rules, settlement, cancelled and invalid markets